The following is the brief closing chapter “The Fantasy Football Future – Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.” from 2012′s version of The Late Round Quarterback. If you’d like to purchase the book, click here.
I don’t anticipate this strategy changing anytime soon. We’ve seen the NFL transform from a league with elite running backs to a league with stellar quarterback play. It’s unbelievable to think that Matthew Stafford, in his first full year as the Lions’ starting quarterback, posted the fifth-most passing yards ever in a single season.
The fact is, the majority of the NFL is moving to this type of spread offense. And when everyone is doing it, all quarterback statistics will get better, not just the best guys.
People fail to realize the kind of fantasy football quarterback Tom Brady used to be. Yes, he’s always been a stellar leader. And yes, he’ll go down as one of the best in history. But prior to his 50-touchdown season in 2007, Tom Brady had never eclipsed the 30-touchdown mark in a single season. He spent 6 years as the starter in New England before becoming a fantasy football stud. He grew with the NFL into this pass-first style offense.
To put this into perspective, Mark Sanchez threw for 26 touchdowns this past season. Mark Sanchez – the guy who’s been under constant media scrutiny since joining the NFL and, in the eyes of some, is on the verge of losing his starting job. Brady’s best touchdown season during his first 3 starting seasons was 28. That’s just 2 better than Mark Sanchez.
This has nothing to do with the talent level between these two quarterbacks. Tom Brady is and will always be light years better than Mark Sanchez at quarterback. This has everything to do with the impact of this “new NFL”. While we’re seeing records being broken by the top quarterbacks, we’re also seeing ridiculous numbers by mediocre ones.
It’s why this fantasy strategy won’t change. As long as the majority of quarterbacks are passing the ball more than they used to in the NFL, you should continue to devalue the position. Additionally, the more these quarterbacks pass, the more important and valuable touches at running back become.
I can guarantee that we’ll never see an NFL where the running back position stops seeing carries. That, and I can guarantee the running back position will never become obsolete in the passing game. Because of this, running backs will always be part of the typical fantasy football lineup. And while they’re still there, they’re still the most vital to success. There just aren’t that many out there getting consistent touches. That’s why the ones who are getting the ball are unbelievably important, and always will be, in fantasy football.
Having a franchise quarterback in the NFL is the single most important thing to a successful team. We’ve seen what the Patriots have been able to do with Tom Brady, what the Colts did with Peyton, and what the Packers are now doing with Rodgers.
This isn’t the NFL, though. This is fantasy football.