The Player Profile series breaks down the 2012 performances of key players at each position in order to project where they should be drafted in 2013. Dig in, read up, and look ahead.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
In his rookie campaign, Luck threw for 4,374 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. He led the revamped Colts to a great season that surpassed even some of the most lofty expectations people could have (realistically) had for them.
I see Luck as the safest of the three quarterbacks in this specific 2013 profile. In my eyes, Luck has the smallest gap between his ceiling and floor. He averaged a tidy 16.5 points per game while only surpassing the 20 point mark four times. My biggest concern with Luck his is the interceptions. He finished the season tied with Mark Sanchez for the third most picks (18), only behind Romo and Brees (19).
But I still doubt we’ll see any “sophomore slump” from him; only a step forward. Currently, fantasyfootballcalculator.com has him being taken as the 7th signal caller off the board at an average pick of 5.07. While that is a bit soon for my blood, I wouldn’t hate on the manager whole pulled that 5th round trigger. Data shows that quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford are going after him, but once drafting season arrives, I’d be surprised if Ryan and Wilson didn’t jump Luck’s ADP. At this early stage I have Luck at QB9.
In 2013, I see him staying in the same neighborhood in TD’s with a boost in yards and decline in interceptions. In all, Luck should be a solid quarterback worth waiting for.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Before he had even taken his first official NFL snap, he had found his way into the hearts of many a fake footballer. As the preseason progressed, that love grew only stronger.
But in the early weeks of the regular season, Wilson left many of his owners out in the cold. Through his first 5 weeks Wilson’s highest scoring game (in standard scoring) was 14 points, and he posted a single-digit game in 3 of those first 5 contests.
From Week 9 through the end of the season, Wilson threw just 2 interceptions. And, from Week 7 on, Wilson was the best fantasy quarterback in the league. His late surge helped pad his stats, as he completed the season with 3,118 yards, 26 TDs, and 10 interceptions. He did also contribute 489 rushing yards and 4 scrambling scores.
The maturation over his rookie season has me confident in him moving forward. Should he continue to be drafted as the 8th or 9th fantasy quarterback, I’d gladly take him and his upside in about the 7th round. The current ADP has him being taken soon after Luck, though that could change quite a bit by the time 2013 draft season arrives.
I believe Wilson is a risk, but that doesn’t mean he’s not worthwhile. His upside could easily force me to take him if he is available late enough. But with the depth of this year’s signal calling crop, it probably won’t be late enough for me.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Kaepernick has set the NFL ablaze since taking over the San Francisco offense. Is there anything this guy can’t do? Becuase it sure doesn’t seem like it right now. Depending on how he performs in the Super Bowl, we could get a nice long offseason of hype train Kaepernicking down the tracks. I could very well be on that train, so I’m not saying that begrudgingly either. Though despite how much I may love the guy, his price may get a bit too high for me given the depth at the position.
Since taking over in Week 11 against Chicago on Monday Night Football, Kaepernick has been money in he bank. One stat that jumped out at me is that he has yet to have a multi-interception game. I believe this shows he learns quickly and has a fantastic short-term memory – something everyone wants in a quarterback.
During his short time as starter (including his package-specific play while Alex Smith was the starter), Kaepernick posted a line of 1,814 yards, 10 TDs and just 3 interceptions. I averaged out his numbers for a full season fantasy-wise and he would have been the 8th best QB in standard scoring leagues. His upside is huge, and it looks like he has nice high floor, too.
Surprisingly, his current ADP is a QB12. There is no way he stays that low,though. Once drafting season gets here, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up having an ADP more like QB6. His upside – as we saw against Green Bay in the playoffs – is too huge for him to have such a low ADP. Look for the 49ers to continue to build around him, and for him to continue to be a fantasy playmaker. For now, the probable ADP fluctuation is keeping me from jumping on Kaepernick in 2013.